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Kurdish Oil and Homeland Movement

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KURDISTAN AND EMERGING WORLD ENERGY CRISIS -- ROAD MAP FOR LASTING SOLUTIONS

Sardar Pishdare

February 23, 2005

Introduction

The world supply of oil and natural gas is not sufficient for current growth of world energy demand.

In combination with strong political tensions, war and instability in the Middle East, this has led to " high oil prices ", and increasing natural gas prices. These are described by some economic analysts and commentators as posing a threat to the world economy.

The situation concerning oil is the most difficult. World supply, production capacity, proven reserves and exploration effort for oil pose immediate and serious problems for the world economy, because it will be difficult to much increase supply, but the situation regarding natural gas is broadly similar.

One major problem is that, since 1999, oil prices have in fact increased roughly 400% from about 10 US dollars-per-barrel (10 USD/bbl) to a range of about 45 – 55 USD/bbl without any incidence at all on world demand for oil. Quite the reverse !

World oil demand is now growing at about 2.5% - 3% each year.

In the 1990s, with much cheaper oil, world oil demand growth was only about 1.4% each year.

This proves the central role of strong oil prices in pushing economic growth, therefore reinforcing oil demand growth, not weakening it. This situation will continue unless oil prices go to very high levels, of above 90 USD/bbl, which will cause strong inflation and harm the world economy.

In turn, very high growth rate trends for world oil demand increase the geopolitical and Great Power rivalries in the Middle East, for control over remaining world reserves and supply. As is well known, regional instability in the Middle East is now very high. Bold and long-lasting solutions must be found and applied. First among these is the acceptance of the historic injustice done to the Kurdish people, and the creation of a peaceful, democratic Kurdish homeland in its historical territories.

Creation of Greater Kurdistan will firstly stabilize the geopolitical situation of the Middle East. It will permit the rational and long-term development and production of all regional resources, including energy resources, both renewable and non-renewable. Bringing stability to the Middle East will not be possible without the creation of a Kurdish homeland.

The world oil problem and Kurdistan

An increasing number of books, studies, reports and Internet sites describe the situation regarding world oil reserves, exploration effort, annual discovery trends, production capacity and demand. All the advanced, urbanized, consumer societies (such as USA, Japan, Europe, South Korea, Taiwan) consume about 12 – 25 barrels of oil per head of population, each year. Applying the same consumption rate to China, India, Brazil, Pakistan and Turkey would increase world oil demand by more than 55 Million barrels-per-day (55 Mbd). This is six times the total production of Saudi Arabia, or seven times the production of Russia, the two biggest oil producers and exporters in the world.

While the current oil price of around 50 USD/bbl for the light crudes is described as " very high ", this price is in fact too low to encourage serious energy conservation and long-term effort to develop the renewable supplies. Oil prices of about 60 or 70 USD/bbl will most certainly draw serious attention to this problem, and bring financial resources and investment to renewable energy development. This will be a very long-term project, over 30 years or more, and will not harm world oil demand, or the revenues obtained by oil exporter countries. This will be sure because world oil demand will remain very strong due to economic growth and development in China, India, Brazil and other fast-growing economies with very big populations. Even if these countries only obtain a consumption rate for oil equivalent to one-third or one-half the rate in rich countries, world oil demand will still increase by huge amounts in the coming 10 – 15 years.

The problem will be oil supply. This problem will increase very fast and become a crisis unless action is taken in the near-term.

As is well known, the Middle East and Central Asia region holds at least 60% of the world’s remaining oil reserves, and much of the world’s natural gas reserves. Taking the case of Iraq, it is seen that invasion, rather than counting on and supporting local opposition to the regime of Saddam Hussein has produced an unstable, warlike and dangerous situation. This prevents investment and sure development of oil and gas reserves, and increases terror action, to the benefit of nobody.

Kurdistan is, and will always remain a historical fact. It cannot be " swept off the map ". Aiding and assisting the Kurdish people to exercise their natural rights to a homeland in secure and recognized frontiers will be an important first step in bringing stability to the Middle East. Only with this stability can the region’s fossil and renewable energy reserves and resources be developed, to help everybody.

Kurdish energy initiative

Once created, an independent Greater Kurdistan will provide the geographical space in which to found the basis of a Middle East regional electric power grid. This will utilize previously flared gas, and develop hydropower, wind and solar resources to run electric power stations, able to supply countries outside the region. This will first include southern and eastern Europe and the Greater Maghreb.

With regional stability assured, and oil prices maintained at a sufficiently high level, longer-term and more costly investments can be made in the oil sector. These will include effort to improve oil field recovery rates, increase production of heavy-grade crudes, develop gas-to-oil conversion, and other important measures for improving world supply of liquid hydrocarbons. This effort will be vital to help world oil supply to remain at high levels, to prevent catastrophic decreases in the world supply, due to depletion of oil reserves in other regions of the world. Expert estimates place these depletion losses at more than 2 Mbd-per-year.

Greater Kurdistan will assure and ensure that major energy investments are put to good use, on a long-term basis, for the benefit of all. Conversely, rejection of Kurdistan’s natural right to exist in stable and recognized frontiers reflecting its historical existence over 2000 years will make these projects and proposals very difficult to carry out and achieve.

Time is now short with regards to future oil supplies for the world. Action has been delayed, and the wrong methods have been used to attempt bringing stability to the Middle East. Kurdish people and their leaders recognize this, have drawn their conclusions and make the observations, and proposals that are briefly described in this document.

From 1991, Kurdish national activists were granted UN authorization for the Kurdish oil project in Iraqi Kurdistan. We carried out a feasibility study for this, and continue to actively pursue this project. We welcome supporters, investors and partners towards this project. We can be contacted through the details stated above.

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